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AMEX – We Told You and We’ll Tell You Again


Companies like Amex just prosper.

Hey – they brought us the Black Card.
If they can sell that thing, and take the highest merchant fees around with oppressive batches and payback terms,
These people are so smart let’s hitch another ride . . .

It still has headroom.

Remember:
https://appletonia.com/2009/11/05/how-can-amex-lose/

???

Same story.

There is still room in this economy for this stock to grow.

This time, buy some more calls, again long chains.

Don’t be greedy, we don’t know how long it will last and we don’t have time to keep checking back and telling you what to do.

So you are on your own sometimes.
For that reason alone, don’t be too greedy!!!

If you want a little equity go for it.
If you bought the last time, just hold on a little longer to that buy.

Take some profit from the dummies who are selling this stock now.

Life is so sweet when opportunity presents itself. Don’t miss out . . .


Life is so sweet.

Apple keeps performing.

IT IS STILL UNDERVALUED!!

Keep cost averaging in until it is overvalued.

The consumer electronic products are so strong, and margins so good.

Ride this wave to healthy returns!!!!

You Want In? Then buy some LinkedIn!! Profits on a platter . . .


OK.

LinkedIn.

There is a lot of real value here.

Who knows where this will go.

Rather, who knows how high it will go?

This company is a bargain.

The data they are accumulating is important and will work.

Buy, and keep buying until it gets too much exuberance.

Maybe we’ll toss some puts in and see what happens . . .

Why does a Company Chose to Not Remain Relevant?


Blackberries

Blackberries

Yeah, Blackberry was partying like it was 1999 in 2008 still.

Why does a Company Chose to Not Remain Relevant?
I still don’t know.
But I will take advantage of their poor choices.

It appears the party is over.

Look at the smart phones around you.

This isn’t the world of the chicklet thumb warrior anymore.

Innovate or die.

I guess blackberry prefers the latter for some reason.

If anyone has some idea how they are going to save their baby please tell me.

I just don’t see it happening.

I’d buy some serious long chain puts and a lot of them.
Ride this thing down till the preacher shows up and cash out.

Call me crazy.
Why go to the casino when you have the equities market?

IPad


The iPad.

Apple has done it again!

If you were to look back several years ago on this very blog the iPad was predicted.

This device is remarkable.  Apple will ride a long profitable wave on this one.
It dovetails beautifully into the long term picture and the paradigm shift already discussed.  More opines to follow – if I feel like it . . . .

Temet Nosce


Temet Nosce.

It is good enough for the Oracle.

Oracle is still not valued properly.

We are backing up our previous equity buy with a nice Call chain.

Fingers crossed, backed by sound fundamentals, in the absence of a cataclysm, this will be a no brainer.

How Can AMEX lose?


How Can AMEX lose?

I don’t know.

This is one of those resilient companies that will emerge smelling like a rose.

The economy will return.

Buy the equities and long term calls.

They might as well be printing the money.

It is so easy being AMEX.

And you can have a piece too.

Just get off your ass and buy some.

It’s my Birthday, and I Want Some ETFs!!!


It’s my birthday.
Well not yet.
In a few months, but I already know what I want!

You know what I want?

ETFs!!!

And lot’s of them.

I’m buying big into the major indexes.

This President is going to employ fed policy that will control interest rates and control inflation.

It is obviously clear that there needs to be a sustained fed purchase.

I think the administration will employ this tool as they learned from previous recessions – it works.

Yes, there is a way out of the Bush ’43 Great Recession!

Praise Bush ’43 for this wonderful opportunity he has given you.

Don’t chastise him.

He handed over the worst economy since the depression.

You can bet on the US failing or succeeding.
The former will only cause the cash sitting in your bank account not earning interest to become less valuable.

There is only one thing to do right now.

Buy heavy into the market.

Lets the ETF managers model the indexes and enjoy your gains.

There really is no alternative.
I cannot see this playing out any other way . . .

Oh yeah . . .

Stock up on canned goods and clean water just in case wonder bread becomes the new fiat currency!
😉

Performance Advertising


As advertisers tighten their belts in a down economy, business is exploding in  performance media.

J.P. Morgan suggested that 2009 “performance-driven advertising [will] continue to rise.” Ad markets are flooded with more media to buy.  This happens daily.
With every new ad based revenue company this will only get worse.  Publishers who dug into the trenches of CPM, are now willingly to openly consider performance pricing models.

Well guess What?  Learn from this. You know what is going to happen?  A lot more media on the supply side will be appearing soon.  The ad buying markets will be flooded with ad opportunities, Billions upon Billions of them per day.  From social media platforms to text platforms and so on.  This will force analytics, and the quality of the ad performance as it relates to the Ad Buyer’s goals to become much more relevant over time.  And USER Intent must be understood.  The likes of Google must perform better semantic reduction for User Intent!

User intent leads to better models of the semantics of intent.

Those that innovate in this area will be very successful as that is where Ad dollars will flow.
Alas, performance media.
With so many companies using Ad Revenue models how could it flow anywhere else?

Didn’t we already learn a parallel lesson?
In recession, online advertising fell by 27 percent, but then we watched search advertising evolve because it was performance-driven functioned off of CPC.
Keyword costs went ridiculously high , however, inventory will always be limited by the volume of search queries.
Will search queries out proportion increasing funds to spend on advertising?
Think about it.

There Are Many Facets of Performance Media.

Performance media is more complex than most people realize. Therefore, defining performance media in a singular way isn’t really appropriate.

Performance for a brand entity might just mean controlling the total cost of driving traffic to a site in predictable way, i.e., via CPC. An e-commerce entity looks to pay only upon a sale — in other words, cost per action (CPA).

Lead generation, also known as cost per lead (CPL), can be used for many purposes, including initiating a direct sales contact, feeding a database for ongoing re-marketing, or building community. Lead gen has broader appeal because it could apply to brand marketers as well as direct marketers, to products or services, to B2C (define) or B2B (define).

Performance advertising is properly suited to any advertiser — it’s a matter of  sourcing items that appropriately match your needs.

Get Educated!!!!

Because performance media is complex, take some time to learn the ins and outs if you aren’t familiar with the space. Performance media has a shaky reputation for a reason: some players don’t abide by any rules or broker their offer through unscrupulous affiliates.

Avoid no-name CPA networks. Ask for transparency. Understand how many times your lead is being sold to other advertisers simultaneously.

Do the Math and Establish Benchmark Metrics, they will only keep building more.  You must stay on top of this or you will fall rapidly behind.  Too far to catch up.

If you’re going to enter the world of performance advertising, divine purchasing thresholds. How you derive those numbers is equally important. This means that the advertiser has to take a closer look at the whole equation, perhaps back calculating from an actual sale, to figure out what it can afford per lead or per click.

This may sound easier than it is, particularly for advertisers who have never gone through this process or aren’t intimately familiar with the variables of their sales or action equation. I’ve had advertisers give me a CPA or CPL target and when I ask how they derived it, they’d say, “Well, that sounds like a good number.” That’s not a good reason.

Understand your entire conversion process and how many visitors turn into leads, leads turn into sales, how many times you need to call or e-mail a contact before a buy, the value of that sale, and if there’s recurring value to that customer, among other factors.  Watch your funnels and tracts of conversion.  Follow your analytics, what page do they leave on?
Study your landing pages.

This process will never end.  It is iterative and will be a full time job.

Just because you might only pay on an action doesn’t mean you want to skimp on the creative process. Creative might be even more important. In a CPA environment, if your creative don’t convert, the publisher displaying your ad will replace it with another ad.

Plan for performance and you’ll have performance in your plan!

Insight into The Oracle


Right now Oracle is an incredible Bargain.

We live in a world of Data.

Oracle maintains market advantages.

People need the Oracle.

Look,
you didn’t come here to make the choice, you’ve already made it.
You’re here to try to understand *why* you made it.
I thought you’d have figured that out by now.

So what are you waiting for?

Buy some Oracle.

Then revisit in a few years and see if you want to take some cash out.

Apple updates white 13-inch MacBook to NVIDIA architecture


macbookjpegApple quietly upgraded previous-generation white 13-inch MacBooks to NVIDIA’s 9400M architecture.  A move aimed at boosting sales of its notebook during a potential period of reduced consumer spending.

The $999 entry level model now includes the same 2.0GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor and 1,066MHz front-side bus.  It also adopts the same NVIDIA GeForce 9400M graphics processor with 256MB of DDR2 SDRAM shared memory.

The white MacBook also enjoyed a doubling of its memory configuration to 2GBs, and employs 667MHz DDR2 memory rather than the faster 1,066MHz DDR3 filly of its aluminum cousins.

The remainder of the notebook’s specifications remain largely unchanged, there is a little blueTooth tweak.  Still has the 120GB 5400-rpm Serial ATA hard disk drive and 8X SuperDrive.

The benefit of  NVIDIA’s new 9400M platform in addition to FireWire (400). 

The move to further embrace the legacy polycarbonate MacBook strongly infers demand for the notebook remained  strong during the holiday shopping season even though speculation existed regarding a phase out.

Who will be the next CEO of Apple?


Jobs-claim-apple-needs-a-ceo-succession-plan-2Recent reports claim Apple’s Jonathan Ive (designer of the iMac) has purchased a mansion in the UK, while endless rumors regarding the need for a proper succession plan for Apple is on desperate need.  It is clear that there are important candidates, but Apple must choose one that has the vision, and the intellectual stimulus to innovate and create new products & divisions to grow Apple appropriately.

There is an incredible opportunity for Apple – especially now – as the technology sector and web technologies emerge at rapid pace. I have opined in other entries in this blog endlessly about this.

Appletonia is reporting that “company-watchers” are asking if Apple can produce a new Steve Jobs? What if something happens to Apple’s individualistic entrepreneur, Jobs?
Well something will.

I am very skeptical Apple will make a good choice.
If Tim Cook succeeds, this finance operational wizard might as well shoot innovation in the head at Apple.
Without innovation Apple could look like a Microsoft stock, or worse.

With no proper succession strategy  disclosed by Apple, people are wondering who could it be?
It is no secret that Jobs has always favored Cook.

The first logical choice is Tim Cook, Apple’s Chief Operating Officer. Cook filled in for Jobs when the company’s CEO was fighting cancer in 2004. This is not a play of logic.  The guy is a finance operations guy.  He will not innovate.

Cook was the best person to choose to maintain Apple’s relations with other companies at the time.
He still reported only to Jobs. That’s why.

Apple should have enough time to consider a future CEO that combines some of Steve’s qualities. And that is NOT COOK! No offense Tim, you are great.  But it doesn’t appear you can innovate.  Only the future will tell if we are right . . . and we will be!

In Jobs’ interview at Fortune  this year  he said “we’ve got really capable people at Apple. I made Tim Cook COO and gave him the Mac division and he’s done brilliantly…” Jobs also stated:

“I mean, some people say, ‘Oh God, if Jobs got run over by a bus, Apple would be in trouble.’ And, you know, I think it wouldn’t be a party but there are really capable people at Apple. And the board would have some good choices about who to pick as CEO. My job is to make the whole executive team good enough to be successors, so that’s what I try to do.”
OK Steve, but tell them not to pick Tim, Please?

Of course, that doesn’t mean everyone is fitted for the job. Imagine Jobs having Microsoft’s Ballmer on his team. Would that be OK …?

Jobs, Cook and Ive aside, there are seven possible successors to the Apple “throne”:
– Daniel Cooperman (General Counsel and Secretary);
– Tony Fadell (senior vice president, iPod division);
– Scott Forstall (Senior VP, iPhone software);
– Bob Mansfield (senior VP Mac Hardware Engineering);
– Peter Oppenheimer (CFO);
– Phil Schiller (Worldwide Product Marketing chief);

Who would you pick?

I know who I would . . .
😉