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Social Leadership and Biologic Self-Orginizational Behaviour


Dear Apple.

What is up. Did you read HBR recently?

We need an innovative leader to hand the torch over to.  This economy requires the swiftness of learning, dexterity, the constitution of a leader that can flex the courage of conviction, and empathically listen to the expertise within the organization. Balance that with respect for the founder’s principals and their developed culture and listen to the wisdom of one of the best boards on the planet.

We need to listen to our employees. They are the human assets of this organization.  They construct the value underlying the Brand Equity. Do not underestimate their value.

We need a Leader, out of the mainstream.  Innovative, to lead this company to the top of the new economy.  To ride the wave of prosperity that will surf the detritus of poor decisions in the financial markets. Apple can do it. There is no need to be be satisfied with low market share. These are the times that companies can surge. It cannot be missed.

Apple has the best products on earth.  Nothing comes close. Lets leverage a CEO with youthful attachment to the new culture, Social Web 2.0 experience from technology to culture and experienced to have the wisdom of the garage startup, the grey hair of the flexability of selforganizational knowledge, and the attributes of Attunement and Empathy. Awareness of the organization. We need to develop the resources of the organization and exploit (good connotation, and leverage them), to boundless regions that have never been reached for.

The emergence of selforganization, and it’s basis in social structure as I opine on it can be found in vestigial boolean form, in Stuart Kaufman’s The Origins of Order.  I have just applied that logic to the business cycle.

So much opportunity, so much Brand equity, the growth is there for the taking, however, a leader must lead the charge!!!

S&P Changes Opinion on Apple Inc.


Some analysts have changed their opinion on the value of Apple stock – whether it is time to buy or sell or just plain hold and do not worry (it is not a good idea to worry). Analysts typically attempt to build trending models based on time series analysis of threshold or hallmark phenomenon. They notably look for the Great Expectations of future earnings. Then they then use data reductive projections as a foundation and basis  to issue recommendations whether or not they think the stock should be purchased or sold. Each brokerage has its own jargon, but it basically means buy, hold, and sell.

Sometimes comparisons between brokerages are difficult because of Jargon changes which makes it difficult to compare broker recommendations.

Well, you can’t just do a multiple regression on a stock chart.  It does not apply.  Thi is a complex dynamic system.  I’m not saying don’t look at the chart or fundamentals – but the answer is right in front of you.  Great brand, a seemingly endless line of fantastic new products – this means market share, margins, and growth.  Can’t ask for much more.

So, take a deep breath, and get rid of your emotions.  Turn on the pragmatic objective part of your brain.

Apple is a bargain.  Just keep cost averaging in.  You will be paid handsomely.

iPhone update, Thank You!


Finally, the most stable iPhone update yet.  Frequent crashes are relegated to only the most complex programs trying to do too much with this operating system.  Please send in your opinion.

I  found this update 2.0.2 to be invaluable,  It saves me hours NOT having to soft or hard reset the phone.

Thank you Apple engineers.  Users will be happy now.  On that note, lets vet these applications a little more diligently?

Come on, what’s the big deal?  You should have a QA lab set up, pounding on every permutation and combination of usages.  The vast majority of problems can be weeded out, before the consumer gets the product.  Once that happens you waste hundreds to thousands to tens of thousands of Human hours on crashing iPhone apps.  That is not nice.  Don’t think alpha or Beta.  Do it yourself.  You would not sell us a song of iTunes that wasn’t mastered? Would you sell a movie that did not have the final cut done?  Then don’t sell and application that is not ready.

On that note, check out Chalkboard.  This is an exciting application, by a clearly forward thinking and talented engineer. This is just a symbol of the endless stream of apps that are going to be flowing our way by the hundreds of thousands if not millions.

Oh, yes . . . This will also be a big money maker.  For the sellers, store owners, and countless small shop developers, some will go big, real big.

The Official Opine on Everything Apple


The official opinion site on everything Apple and whatever catches our Fancy.

From here there will be posts of diversity regarding the world of technology and along the paradigm and theme of the Apple corp and . . . . whatever . . .

At this first post, first and foremost, the Market is of great concern. Do not be fooled, the writing is on the wall.  This market is NOT OK.
Because of fundamentals occurring in banking, repackaging of financial products, scandalous and executive practices at major corps, and a war that is poorly entered and financially controlled, etc.

Homes will continue to go underwater.
War
Financial Crisis
Overspending by this administration, will lead to ruination, and a mess to the next Administration, and it will be a liberal one.  They will be forced to spend because of the revolting habits occurring now – TO SAVE America.  Just a guess, we are not Clairvoyants.  The last time we overspent as a percent of GDP (especially on stuff that just blows up) it didn’t work out well.  There are  opportunity costs to the things we spend our money on.  Every dollar is fungible and must be scrutinized to where it lives.  One item  will have a much higher opportunity cost than another.

My home equity line the same rate as new mortgages? In this impending crisis?

The market is of great concern.  We compel everyone to look at their portfolios and do their fiduciary due diligence.  We feel there is a tremendous opportunity on which we stand on the precipice of a potential societal meltdown if the appropriate financial duties are not tended to.  The market must fall now.  The financial tenets are clear, the government is too slow they will not move fast enough.  It is their nature. I would change positions into cash, especially in financial institutions, and wait for the damage to occur wherever it may be, and then when this worldwide calamity calms, cost average back in with all that sweet cash.

We are not a financial advisory.
We do not have expertise.
Invest wisely with your professional, this is just opinion.

The economy will be strange. Who knows?
Massive spending, and inattention to impending crisis, will hand over a major financial problem to the next administration.

It will be much worse. However, these are also often the times of grand opportunity.
Anything mentioned here is opinion, meant for gambling funds.  NEVER put it all in one basket.

In General:

The simple thinking.
At some point these thoughts are based on America surviving as a Republic.
We believe it will.
Given that, this all makes sense, as if the markets crash too low, $$s will be worthless, and we will be on the bread standard, not the gold or the yen, or anything else.

Some simple guesses.  Don’t panic, be thoughtful and pragmatic.

1) If the Dow is trending below 9,000 slowly cost average in all the way down and on it’s way up, in indexes if available.
Accelerate as we drop lower.  This may be contrarian.
You need an Ironclad stomach, and the ability to lose all this cash.
Accelerate buying as it appears the market is going back up, do NOT stop.

DO NOT FEAR.
Do not get emotional.
This is gambling money.
Even if we get down to 8,000 or 7,000 KEEP cost averaging.
There are only a few times in life where grand opportunities like this exist.
Frankly, if it goes much lower you are going to have to figure out how to buy bread, not count your loses on your tax return.
Fiat currency eventually becomes worthless.
Our country is too strong to not recover from what will be a $2 trillion dollar waste of cash and life on this Iraq war.

2) Apple stock:
Cost average strong right now.
Apple is getting the big picture.
Faster the quicker it drops, and then keep buying even as it goes back up.
AFTER this – you are on your own. It may take a few years and we will opine again.
We believe this to be a prudent strategy, although contrarian admittedly,
We’ll see . . .

3) Google Stock:
If already owned, depending on your tax situation, Google right now anywhere near $700, SELL!

Then take that cash, as GOOG – it will decline, and cost average in all the way down and up again using similar rules.
We feel uncomfortable (right now – we don’t know what future pricing will be like) when it gets to $600, that’s your decision, we suggest sell.

If you are not going to watch the oscillations closely then do not be buying and selling.  Just own this GOOG, it has a great future.  Maybe one of the best of this generation.  Cherry pickers often miss out on the runs.  SO do not be shortsighted on google volatility right now.  If you can take the time there is money to be made in its ups and downs.

The company is volatile – but they get it as well, and are building the future.  It will become less volatile.
In general cost average a strong buy when ever it gets down to $450.
Be careful with this oscillator.  If the oscillator seems to be slowing, then buy equity positions.  GOOG is a long haul value growth stock.  Who knows how far this one will go.

If GOOG becomes more stable then they are a great long haul stock.
Just buy it and stop trading it.  Too much of a pain and you might miss the big gains.
There is a lot of money to be made in their present oscillations though.

As the future unfolds, we can opine more.
Hopefully we’ll get a president smart enough to have better fiscal policy in the future.

The flow of capital is Good!
The opportunity costs of a dollar are real.

Why blow something up when you can invest in the future?
The former only gives defense contractors short term profits, the latter sustains us in perpetuity.

Good fortune to everyone!