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Did Someone Hear a Birdy?


Twitter.

Hmmmmm.

What to do about Twitter.
Well, only a handful of people have asked me. I’m going to opine anyway.

What to do?
Well, You probably will not be able to do anything.

They started with a semi reasonable IPO price, and then drove it up.

Institutions are going to clean up.

This is one of the most overpriced IPOs ever done at this moment.
For some reason they are making us feel like it is not.

Don’t drink the cool-aid.

If you want to gamble and you can afford to lose some cash.
AND, you must sit at you computer for this one.

OK.

If you can buy some of this overpriced stock as high as the very low 40s right out of the gate then do so, as much as you can tolerate.

I’m betting, and so has everyone already said, they expect this baby to go high 40s, maybe touch 50.

The hype has been crazy and people want this.
They are going to get it.

Institutions will be laughing for the whole ride.

As soon as you make a nice profit or this gets near high 40s – lets make a line $46 – start selling.

Sell 2/3 at $46 if you ever get there, or you already haven’t, if it continues to rise sell fast all the way up.
At $47 sell 2/3 of what you have left.
At $48 just dump it.  You earned enough for one day’s work.
Be proud.
You might not even have the computer processing power to make a trade fast enough if it gets to $50.

That bubble won’t last.

You know why?  Because everyone said it will peak at $50 already.

You want better fundamentals?

OK, do your math.
500,000,000 tweets per day.
Let’s be overly generous and give each tweet a CPM rate of $10.
Let’s also be super generous and let’s quadruple their inventory right now and double the users!!

Crazy?  Yes!!!
The market won’t sustain this kind of nonsense when there is so much profit to be had on the first day.

By the way, those numbers calculate out to a revenue model that allows for an extremely high market cap and a stock price that, what do you know, peeks at $50!

That is why we do what we do!

Let’s see what happens the first few weeks then we’ll make more predictions.

We hope it goes super volatile.  That is where we can make some nice cash!

20 Responses

  1. What is the deal?

    I couldn’t even buy a share of twitter?

  2. I’m not letting my portfolio near twtr!

    • Too bad AdMasher, you would have made some tasty profits off this one on these simple predictions.

      • I did end up buying some calls, you are right it was a good move, I am already out, and just sitting on potenitla profits now . . .

        • I made nice profits every time here on twtr

  3. I should have followed your advice.
    I lost big on the twitter!

    • I’m watching TWTR today . . .

      • I must say this is one of my favorite sites for info, I’m glad it is still on the down low.

        Why don’t you give out more frequent advice?

        I make money on every comment you write.

        Could you write a few more?

  4. How dod you guys get twitter stock?

    • I didn’t get any.

      My Broker had zero

  5. I followed the advice on twtr calls, I think I’m about to make some $$$$’s

  6. Do what now with twtr?

    • Look at the last post,

    • Twitter will just keep reigning excrement from the sky

  7. I love this predict, I’m waiting for the next . . .

  8. Gotta love a great stock call

  9. Stellar analysis of the simplicity of running the ad numbers.
    Simply reveals how overvalued this is presently and far they have to go to prove PRESENT value!

  10. Well played!

  11. you are one smart dude!!!

  12. How do you feel about Facebook going forward??

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