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Memo to All Time Travelers . . .


Note to All Time Travelers,

https://appletonia.com/2007/12/17/

Let us revisit the past.
Shortly more analysis will be revealed.

We said the writing was on the wall. The opines were not perfect but pretty good.

Check it out! Free music!


Argonaut & The Strange Attractors
Argonaut and the Strange Attractors

Twitter NitTwits


Twitter.  It is going to be an endless headache.

Pop an acetaminophen and let’s make the best of it.

Especially as soon as they start making 500,000,000 worthless ads/day available to the marketplace.

But people will want to try these ads.
They basically have to try to get some basic metrics.
This will create revenue.
Their revenue is so small, you don’t even have to create that much to make it look amazing, even though it won’t be amazing.

This could get weird.

Let’s have fun.

Let’s take 1/2 the cash (after tax) that we made on the IPO day of Twiiter.

If you notice TWTR fell below 40 today.

If you look at the call chains, they look pretty sweet for gambling purposes.

Again we see a lack of balance to curtail over exuberance in the market place.

Now, I cannot predict weird things happening, but let’s play this with the common sense we employed in others.

Low price, nice length, reasonable gambling strike.

I’m buying some long calls, I think those are a bargain.

The metrics make twittertwits look like hype still – but this creates false exuberance – and volatility.

Let’s see if we can squeeze some more cash out of this one . . .

Did Someone Hear a Birdy?


Twitter.

Hmmmmm.

What to do about Twitter.
Well, only a handful of people have asked me. I’m going to opine anyway.

What to do?
Well, You probably will not be able to do anything.

They started with a semi reasonable IPO price, and then drove it up.

Institutions are going to clean up.

This is one of the most overpriced IPOs ever done at this moment.
For some reason they are making us feel like it is not.

Don’t drink the cool-aid.

If you want to gamble and you can afford to lose some cash.
AND, you must sit at you computer for this one.

OK.

If you can buy some of this overpriced stock as high as the very low 40s right out of the gate then do so, as much as you can tolerate.

I’m betting, and so has everyone already said, they expect this baby to go high 40s, maybe touch 50.

The hype has been crazy and people want this.
They are going to get it.

Institutions will be laughing for the whole ride.

As soon as you make a nice profit or this gets near high 40s – lets make a line $46 – start selling.

Sell 2/3 at $46 if you ever get there, or you already haven’t, if it continues to rise sell fast all the way up.
At $47 sell 2/3 of what you have left.
At $48 just dump it.  You earned enough for one day’s work.
Be proud.
You might not even have the computer processing power to make a trade fast enough if it gets to $50.

That bubble won’t last.

You know why?  Because everyone said it will peak at $50 already.

You want better fundamentals?

OK, do your math.
500,000,000 tweets per day.
Let’s be overly generous and give each tweet a CPM rate of $10.
Let’s also be super generous and let’s quadruple their inventory right now and double the users!!

Crazy?  Yes!!!
The market won’t sustain this kind of nonsense when there is so much profit to be had on the first day.

By the way, those numbers calculate out to a revenue model that allows for an extremely high market cap and a stock price that, what do you know, peeks at $50!

That is why we do what we do!

Let’s see what happens the first few weeks then we’ll make more predictions.

We hope it goes super volatile.  That is where we can make some nice cash!

Lets Be Reasonable . . .


Sometimes we have to just be a little more reasonable.

OK.

We rode out this Tesla party.

But this is getting crazy.

Time to take some profits and place some puts.

I’m selling 2/3 of my Tesla position.

This stock is so overvalued at this moment, stop buying it.
Right now!

Take your profits.

Because of the hype and over priced shares this stock will also overreact at any bad news.

If earnings are off, if a wheel breaks, if Elon flatulates downwind!

I’m guessing this stock cannot take any stress right now at this price.

I’m buying heavy puts for chains at a 20 point drop by the end of the year.

If the stock goes up, guess what?
Don’t panic.
I’ll buy even more puts.  This price will make Tesla stock even more Volatile to the slightest tension.

It is a gamble, but I think it is a good one.

Keep 1/3 of your shares in case the crazy ride continues to climb.
You already received healthy profits.

Hedge the crazy price with some puts on a volatility play.

You are going to be safe.

Lets Put some Puts!


Hows your stomach?

Mine isn’t feeling too good.

This price is too high for LinkedIn right now.

I’m going to sell 2/3 of my holdings and take a healthy gain.

This price cannot hold without volatility.

Two thirds of my LinkedIn money can live safely somewhere else.

I am buying some Puts looking at a 20 point drop chain by the end of the year for an added winter holiday present.

What are you going to do?

Are You Still Using FaceBook?


I don’t know about you, but somebody is still using FaceBook.

As long as that is happening then there is money to be made.

They have not touched the surface yet of continuing to enhance their ad tools.

So same story as last time.

Buy a little more equity positions for the long haul.

Also, go aggressive on the buy open calls.

I cannot imagine them not showing increasing revenue from these new tools and mobile ads.

People are hyped on the FB, and they will react.

Noone knows the long haul so check back.

I would buy call chains into January.

Layer them if you want, but at least into the winter.

As you start making healthy profits cost average out of your calls.

Don’t be too greedy.

Wanna Go for A Drive?


How about a nice drive?

Elon is the Man.
Must be nice.

Well we can’t all be Elon.
However public markets allow us to take a ride with him.

His crafty cars or on Hype-o-matic Overdrive.

Call shotgun and start buying.

My guess is this will play like a tech stock.

So take some antacid, and place your foot on the pedal, yes All The Way Down!

Keep buying till your stomach hurts again . . .